Belgium's capacity remuneration mechanism (CRM) has produced a clear technology signal across three delivery periods, with battery storage emerging as the dominant new entrant and duration shifting decisively toward four hours.

2027-28: 6.5GW at €30.944/MW/year

Belgian transmission system operator Elia published results of three CRM auctions covering the 2027-28, 2028-29 and 2030-31 delivery periods. The CRM provides financial support to market participants making electricity capacity available and was introduced in the context of Belgium's partial nuclear phaseout.

For 2027-28, a total of 6.5GW was contracted across auctions at a total cost of around €200 million and a weighted average price of €30.944/MW/year. No additional capacity was contracted in the Y-1 auction: after accounting for cross-border contributions and capacity available but not participating, the required volume fell to zero — a sign the delivery period is effectively full.

2028-29: batteries take 0.5GW

The Y-2 auction contracted 1.6GW for 2028-29, bringing the total volume already secured for that delivery period to 5.8GW. New batteries accounted for around 0.5GW of selected capacity. Two-hour batteries represented 5.98% of selected volumes, while four-hour batteries reached 31.74%, placing them behind combined-cycle gas turbines in the technology ranking. The auction cost around €34 million at a weighted average price of €21.643/MW/year.

2030-31: four-hour batteries at 61.75%

The divergence becomes stark in the Y-4 auction for 2030-31, which contracted 0.8GW. Including previously awarded long-term contracts, the total volume secured for that delivery period stands at 4.9GW. New batteries accounted for around 0.5GW, split between one-year and multiyear contracts.

No two-hour batteries were selected at all, while four-hour batteries represented 61.75% of volumes — well ahead of other technologies. Supply exceeded demand by 3.1GW, and the auction cleared at around €14 million, with a weighted average price of €18.143/MW/year.

What the data says

Three patterns stand out. First, battery capacity is being added at a remarkably consistent ~0.5GW per auction round, suggesting a steady rather than lumpy procurement rhythm. Second, clearing prices fall sharply across delivery periods — from €30.944 to €21.643 to €18.143/MW/year — consistent with growing oversupply of eligible capacity. Third, the market is voting on duration: two-hour systems disappear entirely by 2030-31 while four-hour systems take the majority of contracted volume.

The 3.1GW supply surplus in the 2030-31 auction indicates that competition for CRM contracts will intensify, and that price, not volume, becomes the binding constraint for developers.

For storage developers, the message is that Belgium's CRM remains a viable route to market, but the economics increasingly depend on duration and cost per megawatt rather than on securing volume alone.

Source: pv-magazine.com

This article was assisted by AI analysis. Please refer to the original source for official information.